Thursday, April 27, 2017

The Assad Regime

The structure of the Assad regime in Syria is different than what most people would consider to be typical in an authoritarian state. While there is brutal oppression of political enemies, and censorship of arts and news, the regime did allow certain things to slide. The concept of tanfis, or letting out air, helps the regime by letting people be frustrated and express that through political cartoons or a joke, and then gives the impression that there is freedom. However, the jokes which are allowed are always eerily accurate. For example, if it something about government censorship, the cartoon will include the repercussions of writing something against the state. In this way, the state essentially uses political cartoons as threats. Through humor, the cartoon depicts what will happen if a citizen turns against the state. In addition, when the acts of opposition against the state is something as basic as a cartoon or a joke, rather than an armed rebellion, that is beneficial to the regime. And for most of the reign of the Assad family, that was the case.
            Lisa Wedeen’s book, The Ambiguities of Domination, help to characterize the peculiar but effective strategies of the Assad family. The shameless promotion of Hafez as the most competent at everything he tried was unbelievable, but this by no means turned him into a laughing stock. The over the top nature of the cult of personality created still was powerful, as pictures of the family were all over, and they were portrayed powerfully. When a message is repeated over and over, and becomes part of the culture, it becomes easier to believe and internalize. The consistency of the propaganda wears people down and becomes incredibly effective. On top of that, when people are unsure when the line will be drawn and how erratic retribution will be, the effectiveness increases. Their strategies essentially isolate individuals and make organized opposition against the regime impossible. While the regime is now under attack from a few groups, the length which they could repel this demonstrates its merits.

            Clearly, forms of opposition succeeded against the regime, and that was possible as the subtler forms of protest began to hold powerful messages. When a cartoon used to intimidate, it began to inspire. While the Assad family operated a successful propaganda and fear campaign, as soon as it broke, it was impossible to put back together. Once the initial fear factor was lost, and people felt freer to make jokes and criticize the regime, that became less terrifying.

Tuesday, April 11, 2017

Hours too Early

In a strange twist of events, the panel regarding US policy on the Middle East happened hours before the United States launched fifty-nine Tomahawk missiles at a Syrian air base. Contrary to some of the panelists view, who believed the US would leave Syria alone to focus on destroying ISIS. The differing perspectives between the three panelists were offering not only different viewpoints, but were experts in various fields.
After attending a similar lecture last year regarding US policy towards Russia and the Ukraine, having a professor from the Army War College adds quality and depth in places where civilians sometimes cannot. However, something that I do not think was adequately addressed was Putin’s interest in supporting the Syrian regime. Considering the proximity to the Russian border, it makes sense that Putin would prefer to keep active US troops out of the picture. Putin seems to want to establish a sphere of influence where he can reestablish the former military might of the former Soviet Union.
Another interesting angle brought up by the panel was the dynamic between the regional powers in the Middle East, Saudi Arabia and Iran. Both states try to exercise power over surrounding countries with either blatant or covert action. A surprising attitude which the panelists reflected was downplaying the threat ISIS poses, as well as how quickly they expect it to be destroyed. I think they could have been clearer here, as the territory ISIS has might be taken back, but the ideology itself is much more difficult to combat. Similarly, to the missile attack, days after the panel, ISIS claimed responsibility for a terror attack on a church in Egypt. It seems like predicting what might happen in the Middle East is near futile.
Looking forward, US policy in the Middle East seemingly must work with Moscow and try to avoid civilian causalities. One of the more somber points brought forward in the panel was that the Middle East and its assortment of problems should only be contained, not solved. While this is certainly a realist’s opinion on the matter, it does offer a bleak future for the region.